420
ACUS11 KWNS 042022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042022
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042022Z - 042215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INITIAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2015 UTC, VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASED
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE RATON
MESA AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS RANGE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AMID A WEAK
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS SUPPORTING GRADUAL AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT OVERLY ROBUST, AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~ 8 C/KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AIDED BY
MODESTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME ORGANIZATION INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE OWING TO 30-35 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE GUSTS WITH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING FAIRLY STEEP. WHILE SOME SEVERE RISK IS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BUOYANCY
SUGGEST THE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED. A WW IS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/GLEASON.. 08/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37900537 37990466 37040278 36660181 35750196 35440227
34980311 34890400 35070475 35420522 35650550 35980556
36430556 37900537
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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