860
ACUS11 KWNS 060448
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060447
AZZ000-060615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060447Z - 060615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING, BEFORE AN EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ, WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A LARGE MCS AND RELATED
OUTFLOW OVER NORTHEAST SONORA HAS MOVED NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BORDER.
MODERATE BUOYANCY REMAINS IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY
OVERTURNED, THOUGH CINH IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT, THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SURGING OUTFLOWS MAY ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
..DEAN/HART.. 08/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...
LAT...LON 31481213 32241206 32511112 32270989 31890948 31500936
31330948 31181049 31221131 31481213
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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