505
FNUS21 KWNS 061636
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MT
AND CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW UNDER AN EXPANDING
UPPER RIDGE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
RH IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN ADDITION TO A VERY DRY FUELSCAPE WITH ERC
VALUES IN THE 90-97TH PERCENTILE RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE BREEZY
WEST WINDS TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
AREA. DENSER SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE REGION COULD LIMIT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND RESULTANT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS IN LOCALIZED AREAS,
BUT IMPACTS TO EXISTING WILDFIRES WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS
STILL OF CONCERN.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A BROADER ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTED AREA REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN UT ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW-MOVING AND
TERRAIN ANCHORED WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, INCREASING
RESIDENCE TIME OF RAIN CORES AND LIMITING A BROADER LIGHTNING
IGNITION THREAT ON MARGINAL FUELS (ERCS CLOSER TO THE 80TH
PERCENTILE).
..WILLIAMS.. 08/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1239 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, PERMITTING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 90+
DEGREES F AS RH VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE TO LESS THAN 20% AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH. THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18-00Z, TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BROADLY NORTHERLY AT 15-25 MPH (GUSTS OVER 30 MPH) FOR A FEW
HOURS WHILE RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE ERCS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80-95TH PERCENTILE, AND NDVI
PORTRAYS A SIGNIFICANT 30-DAY DECREASE IN LIVE GREEN VEGETATION.
ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, A
LIGHTNING IGNITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORM THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, PROLONGED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, AND BRIEFLY BREEZY WINDS MAY ENCOURAGE LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD ERCS EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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