493
FNUS21 KWNS 071640
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AND ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. SATELLITE
IMAGERY PORTRAYS A DENSE LAYER OF WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE ELEVATED RISK AREA. VERTICAL MIXING AND
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AMID AN
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELSCAPE (ERCS EXCEEDING THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE),
GENERATING YET ANOTHER DAY OF HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERNS. SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 MPH OR GREATER AND RH VALUES OF 5-15% WILL FURTHER
EXACERBATE NUMEROUS LARGE FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, ALONGSIDE ANY NEW STARTS. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/07/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0218 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE US TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS FOUND ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND
UTAH, BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ATOP A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.
.. NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO DEEP VERTICAL MIXING,
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEP MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING TO PERHAPS AS LOW AS 5% ACROSS FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10-15%
ELSEWHERE. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA, ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
.. SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHERE THE ADVANCING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
FOUND. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
CONSTRAINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY, LEAVING A VERY
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HERE WILL LIKELY FEATURE SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION OF FALLING
PRECIPITATION LEADING TO LITTLE, IF ANY, APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY, EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY/ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
.. CALIFORNIA
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HERE, HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 110FS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY CALM
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO A
MORE LOCALIZED NATURE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page