915
ACUS11 KWNS 071817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071816
IAZ000-MNZ000-072015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071816Z - 072015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY, ALONG WITH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER, WITH A LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING STORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL IA. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL MN, NORTHWEST IA, AND
NORTHEAST NE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF MID 80S F TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH THE AIR MASS APPEARS CAPPED AS OF 18Z.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED HEATING AND ONGOING WIND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW INTO NORTHWEST IA, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
BACK BUILDING OF THE ONGOING STORM COMPLEX, WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WHILE STORM MODE REMAINS
CELLULAR. THEREAFTER, MERGERS SHOULD LEAD TO A LINEAR MODE, WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AT THAT TIME.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 08/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 40659340 40619394 40769470 41239541 41929578 42349580
42759567 43139523 43369493 43499469 43499430 43539369
43549334 43469317 42879279 42199236 41519210 40909240
40659340
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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