378
ACUS11 KWNS 080335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080335
AZZ000-080530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080335Z - 080530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN
NOTED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST OF TUCSON, WITH COOLING
CLOUD TOPS NOTED ON IR IMAGERY. THIS UPTICK HAS OCCURRED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY MOVING OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES
AND MODERATE BUOYANCY. WITH INCREASING CINH DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
CONVECTION, THE MAGNITUDE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, WEAK NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW
OUTFLOW TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD. IN THE PRESENCE OF A
REMNANT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING, EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 08/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31821020 31701096 31961163 32721206 33001179 33011101
32711007 32400987 32110987 31890993 31821020
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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