481
FNUS21 KWNS 081638
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE RISK AREAS BASED ON UPDATED
GUIDANCE; OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A PASSING
MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, PROMOTING AREAS OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
EXPANSIVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEPER
MIXING AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED FLOW PROMOTE WIND GUSTS OF 25+ MPH AND
RH VALUES OF 5-15%. THE FUELSCAPE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS VERY DRY AND
INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE, AS DEPICTED BY NUMEROUS WILDFIRES ACROSS
THESE REGIONS.
FARTHER SOUTH, MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ADVECTING MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND RESIDUAL SMOKE IN UTAH, WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, PROLONGED HOT, DRY, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE MONSOONAL SURGE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WHERE RECEPTIVE FUELS EXIST.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 100+ DEGREES WHILE SUSTAINED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH AND RH VALUES DECLINE TO LESS THAN 15%. THESE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT A REGION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS,
THOUGH A MIXED FUELSCAPE OF LIVE FUELS AND AREAS OF GRASS CURING (AS
SEEN BY A 30-DAY NDVI COMPARISON) AND FUELS REBOUNDING FROM SPOTTY
RECENT RAINFALL YIELD A COMPLICATED ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, FIRE
CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS THE RISK AREA.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0102 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE US TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS ONCE AGAIN FOUND ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT LOOKS MODEST WITH THIS FEATURE. A
WEAK LOWER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT A BELT OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST, BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ATOP A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
.. NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING BRING DOWN MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE DEEP MIXING
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO PERHAPS AS LOW
AS 5% IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10-15% ELSEWHERE. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE
FUELS, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
... CALIFORNIA SIERRAS, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA, AND MUCH OF UTAH
...
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHERE THE ADVANCING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. BENEATH THIS MOIST
PLUME, A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EVAPORATION OF FALLING PRECIPITATION LEADING TO LITTLE, IF ANY,
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THESE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY/ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
... HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, FAR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BELT OF MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 700-MILLIBAR FLOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FLOW SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING MIXES INTO
AND THROUGH THIS LAYER. THE RESULT WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 IN THE PRESENCE OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING
INTO THE TEENS. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ERC PERCENTILES SHOW A VERY DRY
FUELSCAPE, WITH PERCENTILES BETWEEN 95-98%. A SMALL ELEVATED AREA
WAS INTRODUCED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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