186
FNUS21 KWNS 091634
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT SUN AUG 09 2026
VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN EXPANSIVE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE SMOKE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND MIXED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD. WITH MORE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON (AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY), A GREATER COVERAGE OF MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA, IN THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW AREAS WHERE DENSER PLUMES OF SMOKE MAY INHIBIT MORE
EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING. A PROLONGED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY; HOWEVER, SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS AND AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ENCOUNTER LOCALIZED ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UP TO 0.5". ON THE
PERIPHERY OF MUCH DESIRED PRECIPITATION, LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN AS A RESULT OF DROUGHT-STRESSED FUELS AND AN
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY ENVIRONMENT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/09/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0114 AM CDT SUN AUG 09 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD SWATH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS FOR TODAY, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY,
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND WYOMING
EARLY MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WILL ACT TO MODULATE ANY
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHERN STREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. CONSEQUENTLY, SURFACE
WINDS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES THROUGH
TERRAIN-FAVORED LOCATIONS. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUSTAINED
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM NORTHERN CA
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF WY. HOWEVER, DEEP
MIXING WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL FACILITATE DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH
SHOULD MANIFEST AS 15-25 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS (WHICH SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS) AND VERY LIMITED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
1-2 WEEKS, AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
SUSTAINED ELEVATED CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST NV
AND EASTERN WY WHERE MORE FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS.
FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL CA, AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME SHOULD PROMOTE
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE COASTAL TERRAIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH COUPLED WITH 15-20% RH MINIMUMS SHOULD
SUPPORT AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN FEATURES.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 F. WEAK LEE
TROUGHING JUXTAPOSED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL YIELD A SWATH OF 15-20 MPH GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHWEST KS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WHILE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND WELL INTO
CENTRAL KS; HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS SHOULD
MODULATE FUEL STATUS TO SOME DEGREE WITH EAST/NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
00 UTC RAOBS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN SAMPLED VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FOR 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY, SOUNDINGS FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SAMPLED VERY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS, WHICH IS REFLECTED
IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BY POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. MRMS QPE
AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SUGGESTS DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. HOWEVER, THE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO CONTINUED
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. REGARDLESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING OVER DRY FUELS
WILL POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING IGNITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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