052
ACUS11 KWNS 101330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101329
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-101500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101329Z - 101500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH AN ONGOING MCS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1325Z, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL MCS WITH A
LEADING BOW STRUCTURE MOVING THROUGH LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST PA AT AROUND 30 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE; HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
DECREASING ECHO HEIGHTS, POTENTIALLY SUGGESTING A WEAKENING TREND.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD-FREE SKIES AHEAD OF THE MCS WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 80 DEGREES OBSERVED WITHIN THE INFLOW
AIR MASS. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING FOR SIMILAR
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXISTS FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. AS SUCH, IT'S POSSIBLE
THE MCS COULD RESTRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD/HART.. 08/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40247720 40527662 40437525 40207420 39827398 39457409
39397467 39517593 39637700 40247720
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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