299
ACUS11 KWNS 101700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101659
DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-101900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE MARYLAND AND WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLES INTO THE
DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101659Z - 101900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY REQUIRING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST PA IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING A TIGHTER LEADING-EDGE
REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT AND MORE ROBUST TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION,
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ORGANIZING COLD POOL.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
CURRENT KPBZ VWP IS SAMPLING STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE
2 KM AGL, WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN FURTHER COLD POOL ORGANIZATION.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE
OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..MEAD/HART.. 08/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 39117919 39457922 39687831 39607644 39657577 39167542
38627575 38367675 38547793 38717879 38877919 39117919
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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