812
ACUS02 KWNS 101733
SWODY2
SPC AC 101731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY FROM THE EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS VICINITY INTO PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AREAS OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
..FROM EASTERN IA INTO IL...IN...OH...NORTHERN KY...WV
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN
PLACE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER, THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY APPEARS TO
BE TIED TO EARLY DAY STORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS IA. SEVERAL
MODELS SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED MCS EARLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD THEN
PROCEED EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG WITH MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG, STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND SPEEDS. A
FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS OVER 75 MPH MAY OCCUR, DEPENDING ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL LATE DAY CELLS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG ANY
TRAILING OUTFLOW, AFFECTING AREAS FROM NORTHERN KY INTO WV AND
WESTERN VA WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POTENTIAL.
..DAKOTAS INTO MN AND IA
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING
OCCURS, BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM AFTER 21Z FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO WESTERN ND, PROCEEDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NE THROUGH THE
EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL FAVOR CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY IN WHETHER STORMS WILL AGGREGATE
INTO AN MCS, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO MORE OF SOUTHERN MN
AND IA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 08/10/2026
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