495
ACUS11 KWNS 101747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101747
ILZ000-IAZ000-102015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101747Z - 102015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF SUSTAINED STORMS CAN EVOLVE, SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A W/E-ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE EARLIER 12Z ILX SOUNDING
SAMPLED ROBUST CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE EML, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AMID UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS, AND
CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD FURTHER ERODE INHIBITION. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE EML ATOP THE RICH PBL MOISTURE IS
YIELDING STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
FAR EAST-CENTRAL IA, WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. WHILE
REMAINING INHIBITION AND GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED
BUOYANCY AND AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
ANY SUSTAINED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. CURRENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED STORMS IS HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN IA AND VICINITY, WHERE SOME INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT PRECEDING AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT. THE
NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 08/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41148980 41199035 41359106 41569136 41939136 42289095
42419004 42388864 42238813 41778774 41178801 41118859
41148980
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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