642
ACUS11 KWNS 101900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101900
VAZ000-WVZ000-102100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101900Z - 102100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN A WEAKENED TREND, PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 40-45 KT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE GUST FRONT,
AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD REINFORCE THE COLD POOL,
LEADING TO THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE. THAT
PROCESS MAY BE AIDED BY STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES COMPARATIVELY STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
GIVEN THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS, THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER,
IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..MEAD/HART.. 08/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
LAT...LON 37418112 37838072 38018052 38018001 38037949 37507891
37017900 36757928 36647999 36718073 36798124 37128135
37418112
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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