072
ACUS11 KWNS 102315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102315
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102315Z - 110115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP
THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AIR MASS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF THIS CAN OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IMAGERY DEPICTS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/CONFLUENCE ZONE. ALTHOUGH BROAD-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS
THIS REGION IS WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH, THE NEARBY
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIMITED CAPPING AND AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION, AND RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP
(THOUGH A FEW RRFS SOLUTIONS DO HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL).
HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED, IT WILL LIKELY
MIGRATE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, THE
KBIS VWP CONTINUES TO SAMPLE 50-55 KNOT 0-6 KM BWD, WHICH WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION FROM
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER/MCS GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND WEAK NEAR-SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ZONE OF INITIATION, BOTH OF WHICH WOULD FAVOR DEEP/EXPANDING
COLD POOLS.
IF INITIATION AND CLUSTERING OCCURS, A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WINDS WILL LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ND AND INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL SD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, AND WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IF ROBUST/SUSTAINED
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE IMMINENT.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 08/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44400125 45150445 45380464 45880468 46190453 46460414
46510385 45979976 45649953 45259953 44859970 44530021
44390065 44400125
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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