514
ACUS11 KWNS 110000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110000
VTZ000-NYZ000-110130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN NY/VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 110000Z - 110130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO, BUT WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
STRENGTHENED/MOVED INTO NORTHERN NY/VT. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
(UP TO 40-45 KT) NOTED ON THE LATEST VWP FROM KCXX SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A SMALL
CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. FARTHER WEST, A CELL MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN NY MAY ALSO
POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS NOT OVERLY UNSTABLE, AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.
..GLEASON/MOSIER.. 08/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...
LAT...LON 44867542 45117478 45057217 44857175 44407196 44087264
44227396 44707542 44867542
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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