888
ACUS11 KWNS 110236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110236
SDZ000-110430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562...
VALID 110236Z - 110430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS A ROBUST SUPERCELL MIGRATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR, A LONE, BUT INTENSE, SUPERCELL HAS
EXHIBITED PERSISTENT THREE-BODY SCATTER SPIKES CONSISTENT WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL, AND HAS ALSO PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 61 MPH PER
RECENT REPORTS. MORE RECENTLY, THE REFLECTIVITY CORE HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY, AND THE STORM MOTION HAS SHIFTED FROM DUE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, SUGGESTING A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE STORM'S INTERNAL
PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS AND OVERALL INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THIS CELL
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSE CONVECTION (MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG AND NEARLY 50 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE 00 UTC UNR AND ABR
SOUNDINGS), SO SOME DEGREE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE CELL, WHICH MAY ALSO INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR VERY
LARGE (2 INCH) HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. GIVEN THE ELONGATED/STRAIGHT
NATURE OF REGIONAL WIND PROFILES, THE EMERGENCE OF THIS NEW CELL
HINTS THAT CELL INTERACTIONS AND COLD POOL AMALGAMATION MAY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NEW CELL BEGINS TO SPLIT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A VERY GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A SUPERCELLULAR TO A
CLUSTERED/LINEAR STORM MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SEVERE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. A FEW RECENT
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS TRANSITION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.
..MOORE.. 08/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 45330296 45560261 45620219 44519963 44069982 43780028
43730096 43780180 43870244 45330296
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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