349
ACUS03 KWNS 110732
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO IL,
AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THIS
CONVECTION IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH
ANY REMNANT STORM CLUSTER OR MCV MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
INTENSIFICATION AND WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, IF IT IS WELL-TIMED WITH DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IN THE VICINITY
OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF ANTECEDENT DAY 1-2 CONVECTION, AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT APPEARS NEBULOUS AT BEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN A REGIME
OF WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH SOMEWHAT
GREATER COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE INTO LATE EVENING NEAR THE FRONT,
THOUGH THE LATER ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE DEEP
CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED. A BROAD 5% AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE ANTICIPATED VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION REMAINS RATHER LOW.
..PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GUIDANCE VARIES
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EXTENT (IF ANY) OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS.
..DEAN.. 08/11/2026
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