024
ACUS48 KWNS 110815
SWOD48
SPC AC 110813
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/FRIDAY
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION, BUT STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ITS VICINITY. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT ISOLATED. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN VA, WHERE THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT, IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.
..D5/SATURDAY - D6/SUNDAY
SOME DAMPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE (POTENTIALLY AIDED BY ONE OR MORE
MCVS EMERGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS) MAY RESULT IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
EMERGING THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, DETAILS REGARDING TIMING OF ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND POSITION OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE REMAIN
QUITE UNCERTAIN.
..D7/MONDAY - D8/TUESDAY
EXTENDED-RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS QUITE
LOW REGARDING THE EXTENT TO WHICH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IMPINGES
UPON FAVORABLE INSTABILITY, BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
..DEAN.. 08/11/2026
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