365
ACUS11 KWNS 111201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111200
OHZ000-INZ000-111400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111200Z - 111400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INITIALLY LINEAR BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AND UNDERGO SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 9-11 AM EDT. THIS COULD POSE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS, BUT THIS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ITS NOT CLEAR THAT IT WILL REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, NOW IN A LINEAR BAND
NORTHEAST OF THE MUNCIE THROUGH LAFAYETTE VICINITIES, STILL APPEARS
ROOTED ABOVE A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALONG A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, COUPLED WITH PERHAPS
SUBTLE STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ONGOING
DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF ACTIVITY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO. UPDRAFT INFLOW EMANATING FROM THIS ENVIRONMENT MIGHT PROVIDE
CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
13-15Z TIME FRAME, WITH SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AIDED BY
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER, WITH LOWER- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MEAN WESTERLY WIND FIELDS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT, THE
EXTENT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE REMAINS
UNCLEAR DUE TO THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..KERR/SMITH.. 08/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...
LAT...LON 40338427 40108361 39658279 38918287 38938396 39308468
40198575 40368581 40208487 40338427
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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