767
ACUS01 KWNS 111613
SWODY1
SPC AC 111611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS TO VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM
THE NORTHERN INDIANA INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..IL/IN/OH
A FAST MOVING AND INTENSE BOWING MCS IS AFFECTING THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL RACE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND EVENTUALLY
WESTERN OH. INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE BOW, AND THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
REFER TO MDS #1921 AND #1922 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..OH/WV/KY/VA
ANOTHER LINEAR MCS IS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST OH, AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WV AND INTO VA LATER TODAY. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX IS
NOT AS UNSTABLE, AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM'S LONGEVITY. NEVERTHELESS, SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT AND
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
REFER TO MD #1923 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..ND/SD/NE
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL SD BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
..HART/WEINMAN.. 08/11/2026
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