622
FNUS21 KWNS 111654
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EMANATING FROM RECENT DAYS
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FUELED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE, FUELS HAVE
BEGUN DISPLAYING MUCH DESIRED IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. UNFORTUNATELY, TODAY'S DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OVERLAP
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN WYOMING WHERE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP AMID AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
FUELSCAPE, HOLDOVERS MAY EMERGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EDGES
CLOSER TO THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF DRY, WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, ARCING
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WY. THESE ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CO RIVER BASIN REGIONS WHERE A
MIX OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
ARE EXPECTED.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WYOMING
FUELS REMAIN QUITE RECEPTIVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA INTO
NORTHWESTERN NV AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME RH
VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. MODEST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION. WEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE SIERRA NEVADA RESULTING IN 10% OR BELOW RH,
WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO NORTHEASTERN CA AND
ADJACENT NV. TRANSIENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE WINDS REACH 20 MPH, BUT ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SIMILARLY DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN ID, EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BOLSTER A MODEST SOUTH
WIND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO
15 MPH AND SURFACE RH AS LOW AS 10% WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
KS THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS RECEPTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM
CURING FINE FUELS AMID EXPANDING DROUGHT.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PWAT VALUES OF 0.75-1.00 INCH WILL LIMIT IGNITION
POTENTIAL TO OUTSIDE HEAVIER RAIN CORES. IN ADDITION, NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF RICHER MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED D2/WEDNESDAY AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS NEAR THE WEST COAST. EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL
FURTHER REDUCE HOLDOVER THREATS WITH LONGER TERM FUEL IMPROVEMENT AS
HIGHER HUMIDITY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (WITH POSSIBLE WETTING RAINS) EMERGE LATER
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE, DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE NOT INTRODUCED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page