851
ACUS11 KWNS 111805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111804
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NC/VA
PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111804Z - 112000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXPAND DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HAS LARGELY WANED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS WITH MODEST CLOUD TOP WARMING NOTED VIA RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IN ADDITION, A GRADUAL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM MODE IS LIKELY ONGOING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT (EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 KTS OR LESS NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA VIA LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS). REGARDLESS, EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE BUOYANCY
GRADIENT. MODESTLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY
TO RESIDE WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
ISOLATED, HOWEVER, OWING TO THE MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT A DOWNSTREAM WATCH APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/HART.. 08/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 37588235 37748209 38088100 38048062 37878032 37397997
36597984 36277993 36068017 35968063 35988122 36138179
36478231 37078255 37338249 37588235
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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