753
ACUS03 KWNS 111934
SWODY3
SPC AC 111932
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT
RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER WITH EASTERN EXTENT, BUT STILL MOSTLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS FLOW ORIENTATION, CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TEND TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND WIND
DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CLUSTERS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO MORE BUOYANT AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES DURING THE EVENING, THOUGH STORMS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED
BY THAT POINT.
..FRONT RANGE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS AIDED BY A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION. WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY TEMPER SURFACE
HEATING, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
..NORTHEAST
WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A MID-LEVEL JET CROSSES OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LONG HODOGRAPHS, DRIER CONDITIONS
(50S F DEWPOINTS WITH PERHAPS POCKETS OF LOW 60S F) WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
FEW STRONGER GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY, BUT SEVERE-CALIBER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LOW.
..WENDT.. 08/11/2026
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