874
ACUS11 KWNS 112154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112153
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-120000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568...
VALID 112153Z - 120000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY EXIT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WW 568 BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND OCCURS. DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO ADDRESS
ANY LINGERING SEVERE WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KY WITH A HISTORY OF RECENTLY PRODUCING WINDS WITHIN
THE LINE BETWEEN 55-65 MPH BASED ON REPORTS/WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE
PEAK OF THE BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO ALIGN WITH THE INTERSECTION
OF THE MCS AND A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN KY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TO THE
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY, A VERY BUOYANT AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTION AND
SEVERE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LINE APPROACHES
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WW 568.
BEYOND ROUGHLY 00 UTC, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE MCS TO
BEGIN WEAKENING WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO AN AIR MASS THAT HAS
ALREADY SEEN SOME DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND INTO A REGION
WITH WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND SOME RESIDUAL BUOYANCY, IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME LINGERING
THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL.
..MOORE.. 08/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 35258346 35328407 35568447 37348535 37778537 38118505
38228434 38218362 38198304 38078272 37748222 36448179
36008171 35808186 35598209 35358260 35288322 35258346
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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