363
ACUS11 KWNS 112225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112224
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565...568...
VALID 112224Z - 120030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565, 568
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY POSE A TRANSIENT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR SEVERE
GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR SUBSTANTIAL
INTENSIFICATION AND A PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR/VISIBLE IMAGERY
DEPICT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RAPIDLY EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST MCS CONTINUES TO EXPAND. ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IN, AN ORGANIZED, BUT COMPACT MCS, SOUTHWEST OF
INDIANAPOLIS HAS SHOWN STEADILY DECLINING VELOCITIES BEHIND A BOWING
SEGMENT, SUGGESTING THAT THE COMPLEX IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT
MIGRATES FURTHER EAST INTO THE COLD POOL. ADDITIONALLY, NEW
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KY. IN GENERAL, THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXHIBITED
TRANSIENT INTENSIFICATION AS BUOYANT PARCELS ORIGINATING WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ARE QUICKLY DISPLACED INTO THE COLD POOL.
THIS TREND SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY 00-02 UTC. STORM MOTIONS INTO THE
COOL/STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY, BUT
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR ACROSS MAY SUPPORT PERIODIC STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL (MOST LIKELY
AROUND 1 INCH) AND SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED, LOCAL EXPANSIONS MAY BE REQUIRED
AS NEW CONVECTION EMERGES.
..MOORE.. 08/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38908775 39228786 39558769 39778734 39838693 39788625
38998471 38628443 38278462 37898492 37728533 37758572
37938629 38328706 38628748 38908775
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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