062
ACUS11 KWNS 120059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120058
NDZ000-SDZ000-120230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...570...
VALID 120058Z - 120230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569, 570
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS REMAIN LIKELY THIS
EVENING WITH SEVERAL ONGOING SUPERCELLS.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND AND WESTERN SD. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
UNR SHOWED AROUND 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PRESENT TO SUPPORT THESE
ONGOING SUPERCELLS, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45+ KT.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE MAINLY DISCRETE MODE, PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND FAVORABLE WESTERLY SHEAR VECTORS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY WITH AN ONGOING HP SUPERCELL TRANSITIONING TO A SMALL BUT
INTENSE BOWING CLUSTER WITH RFD SURGE EVIDENT IN BUTTE/MEADE
COUNTIES IN WESTERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL SD, WITH 75+ MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569 IN WESTERN SD SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 02Z, EITHER A NEW WATCH OR EXTENSION IN TIME WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..GLEASON/MOSIER.. 08/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 43110298 43730325 44740351 45660345 46780298 47090256
46970128 46840068 46560032 46220028 46010068 45710193
45150201 44790110 44020106 43540122 43260155 43090191
43020222 43020263 43110298
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page