813
ACUS03 KWNS 120738
SWODY3
SPC AC 120737
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY,
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. A SEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FRONTAL
ZONE THAT INITIALLY EXTENDS GENERALLY EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TOWARD
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY MAY TEND TO LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATER IN
THE PERIOD, THOUGH ITS POSITION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
ANTECEDENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION.
..MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE, BUT MODERATE TO STRONG MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST EARLY-DAY
STORMS.
EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT AND ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
DAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN CAPPED ALONG
AND TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING, WITHIN A MODEST
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY
NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
SIMILAR TO D2/THURSDAY, MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT, BUT CELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME MODEST OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERING POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH,
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND POSE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.
..CAROLINAS/VA
MODEST MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY, THOUGH GUIDANCE VARIES
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THIS REGION. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD
EVOLVE IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 08/12/2026
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