833
FNUS21 KWNS 121539
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 121700Z - 131200Z
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PORTIONS OF THE EXISTING ELEVATED
AREAS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED AREA WAS
EXPANDED A BIT IN ALMOST EVERY DIRECTION. CONSTRAINING FACTORS OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND OK ARE NOT ONLY THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF THE DRIEST RHS, BUT ALSO A GRADIENT OF INCREASINGLY
GREEN FUELS. OVER SOUTHWEST ID AND NORTHERN NV, STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST FROM THE EXISTING
DRAWN AREA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA,
WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN ID, MT, AND WA.
..STEARNS.. 08/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1251 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AS A
BROADER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC, FALLING H500 HEIGHTS AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WA, THE ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN MT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND MORE EXPANSIVE MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHWESTERN NV AND THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
KS/CO.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH (LOCALLY 20 MPH AT TIMES)
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING PEAK HEATING WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW AFTERNOON
RH, WITH INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM WHERE RH BELOW 10 PERCENT IS
POSSIBLE. FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY, WITH ERC VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE
97-99TH PERCENTILES UNDER MULTIPLE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, CURING FINE FUELS. EXISTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD GIVEN LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER
MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WA, ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
MT THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES WITH
PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.00". HOWEVER, FUELS SHOULD REMAIN RECEPTIVE TO
POTENTIAL IGNITIONS OUTSIDE OF THESE HEAVIER CORES. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN, IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST STORM TRAJECTORIES AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER INTO WA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND SUPPORT A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN OF IDAHO
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHWESTERN NV, FAR SOUTHERN OR AND THE UPPER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN ID. WEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH COMBINED WITH
RH LOCALLY BELOW 10 PERCENT AMID VERY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE
EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NV AND ADJACENT OR/ID AREAS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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