398
ACUS02 KWNS 121736
SWODY2
SPC AC 121735
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA...AND FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, COLORADO FRONT RANGE, AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNIFORM IN PLACING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/MCS IN
IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
ON THURSDAY WILL BE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO THE AMOUNT
OF RECENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. SECONDARY TO THAT, THE MORNING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH AND AIRMASS NORTH OF THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE STRONG HEATING IN MISSOURI WITH MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE WEAK, HOWEVER, AND THIS SCENARIO IS
UNCERTAIN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DURING THE EVENING, AREAS OF
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. BOUNDARY PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO MEAN ACTIVITY
WILL TEND TO TRAIN/INTERACT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BE ONLY BRIEFLY
SUPERCELLULAR. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
..FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH/NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THESE REGIONS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30
KT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. NEAR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO/RATON MESA, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR CLUSTERING WITHIN SOME OF THE
CAMS WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LOCALLY GREATER RISK IN PARTS OF WESTERN
KANSAS.
..NEVADA
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND HELP TO FOCUS A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
MOVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
NEVADA. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP, PARTICULARLY
IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
..NORTHEAST
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE OR MORE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH
DECREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHILE SOME
DRYING/MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED, MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE
OFFSET FROM THE LARGER INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE, MODEST SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT IS APPARENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS LIKELY DUE TO THE REGION
BEING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO ISOLATED FOR PROBABILITIES.
..SOUTHEAST
A REMNANT MCV IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE
MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE
NAM HAS THE MOST ROBUST CIRCULATION, BUT ALSO WEAKENS IT WITH TIME.
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHEAR
WILL REMAIN WEAK. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN AN AREA OF GREATER
CONCENTRATION/ORGANIZATION REMAINS QUITE LOW AT PRESENT TIME.
..WENDT.. 08/12/2026
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