955
ACUS03 KWNS 121926
SWODY3
SPC AC 121925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT
RANGE INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
..MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING DURING THE EARLY MORNING IN
PARTS OF THESE REGIONS. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED,
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/SHEAR WILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WHETHER AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR. AN MCV WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING INTO IOWA/MISSOURI OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
MAY HELP DEVELOP AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
VICINITY. LATER IN THE EVENING, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE ELEVATED BUT STILL POSE SOME SEVERE RISK.
..FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A SIMILAR SETUP TO THURSDAY WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER
MODEST, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER TO MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. THE STRUCTURE/LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET VARIES IN MODEL GUIDANCE (THE NAM FOCUSES THE JET CORE FARTHER
WEST) WHICH MAKES THIS POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN.
..VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
NORTHEAST UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. BOTH
THE NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..WENDT.. 08/12/2026
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