026
FNUS21 KWNS 130549
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING PRESENT ALONG THE WEST COAST, MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. CONVECTION ON THE FRINGES
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND LESS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
AND NORTHERN CA, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF
ID AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MT. A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS WILL BOLSTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HOT, DRY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE,
WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN KS. AN ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN OK AND
SOUTHERN KS.
...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEASTERN OR INTO ID AND FAR NORTHWEST
MT...
SOME MINOR EXPANSION OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE
MADE INTO THE SISKIYOUS OF NORTHERN CA. INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME LIFT PROVIDED FROM TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL CA COULD SIMILARLY AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIPHERAL MONSOON MOISTURE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 0.70-0.90" WILL
INHIBIT CONSIDERABLE SURFACE RAINFALL WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OR, WESTERN ID AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FUELS REMAIN QUITE RECEPTIVE WITH SOME
NEW IGNITIONS POSSIBLE. THE EXISTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEASTERN CO WILL
SHIFT INTO CENTRAL KS LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX AND WESTERN OK. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCELERATE BACK TO 15
MPH (LOCALLY 20 MPH) BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
LOW RH IN THE LOWER TEENS, HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
100S AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE, WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN KS. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
WERE EXTENDED FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A POTENTIALLY DELAYED COLD FRONT. THE INTENSE SURFACE
HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH A SUBTLE EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS EMANATING FROM SLOW MOVING/COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD EXACERBATE ANY NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE MADE.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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