116
ACUS11 KWNS 131528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131528
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-131800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131528Z - 131800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF IOWA AND INTO
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS, A WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN IA,
WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SOUTHEAST IA AND INTO FAR
NORTHEAST MO. STORM TRENDS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER IA.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM, COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN IL AND IN, WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN IN. THIS INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL
FOR SUSTAINED STORMS, BUT MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES AROUND 30 KT, COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT.
..JEWELL.. 08/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41469160 41148780 40908759 40178763 39768794 39808884
40129059 40309148 40479187 40669197 41139167 41469160
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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