363
ACUS03 KWNS 131939
SWODY3
SPC AC 131937
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND CAROLINAS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY...
TWO MCV FEATURES ARE FORECAST WITH ONE WITHIN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ANOTHER NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ON SATURDAY. THESE MCVS
WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE
THE MCV MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BE MOVING INTO AREAS
THAT WILL HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE LEAD MCV. DESTABILIZATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN IOWA/ILLINOIS IS NOT CERTAIN, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE LEAD MCV, DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY APPEAR MORE PROBABLE. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS CONTINUE TO BE EARLY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER AND WHERE
THE MCV WILL TRACK RELATIVE TO THE GREATER BUOYANCY. A CORRIDOR OF
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA
INTO OHIO, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.
..COLORADO FRONT RANGE
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF THE
ADJACENT PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL NOT BE VERY STRONG.
WHILE CONVECTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS, SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE. MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE OFF OF THE
TERRAIN AND POSE A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE.
..WENDT.. 08/13/2026
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