523
ACUS11 KWNS 132317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132316
UTZ000-WYZ000-140115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132316Z - 140115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS THIS EVENING. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL
BE LIMITED AND A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2310 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WITHIN A PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. OVER THE LAST HOUR, A MORE
ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EMERGED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
UT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM REMAINS WARM AND QUITE MOIST, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S F. THIS IS SUPPORTING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT, WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. WHILE THE AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST THAN TYPICAL WITH
PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH, AREA RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WITH T/TD SPREAD AROUND 30 DEGREES F.
THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AND
STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WITHIN THE ONGOING CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE MORE CLUSTERED STORMS. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER INTERMITTENT CORES.
SEVERAL MESONET SITES HAVE ALREADY REPORTED GUSTS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE. THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASES. WHILE STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED OWING
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. THIS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO A COOLER AIR MASS WITH WEAKER LAPSE
RATES AND BUOYANCY ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND FAR SOUTHWEST WY THIS
EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/HART.. 08/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 40991358 41641111 41321031 40130983 39361047 39151120
38831209 38581301 38571404 38811397 40991358
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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