726
ACUS11 KWNS 140130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140130 COR
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-140300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 140130Z - 140300Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY GRADUALLY MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND A SUBSEQUENT SEVERE WIND GUST RISK
IS EVIDENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0100 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS ONGOING FROM SOUTHERN
WY, ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KS. DRIVEN IN PART BY A
BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS
STEADILY INCREASED THIS EVENING. WITH NUMEROUS STORMS ONGOING, SOME
COLD POOL AMALGAMATION HAS BEEN NOTED. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS CONTINUING WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR MCS
EVOLVING LATER THIS EVENING.
THE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IS STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE BUOYANCY (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG).
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE MODEST BETWEEN 25-35 KT, BUT SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZATION OF MULTICELLS AND CLUSTERS. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE
COLD POOL AND HOW THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE SEVERE RISK. WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND CURRENT
STORM MAINTENANCE, FURTHER CLUSTERING AND EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, SOME SEVERE RISK COULD
EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED.
..LYONS/HART.. 08/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41020262 41330103 41260030 41029977 40699947 39209938
38769992 38490030 37840140 37830153 37780215 38200293
38720380 39220407 40060413 40840285 41020262
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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