895
ACUS11 KWNS 140404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140403
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-140600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
CENTRAL INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 140403Z - 140600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE AIR MASS NEAR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF MORE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG
CAP AT THE BASE OF THE EML ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OF GREATER
BUOYANCY, WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
GENERALLY BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TRAINING STORMS
OVERNIGHT, WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SHOULD A CLUSTER BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND DROP
SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO THE
MORNING. A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT.
..THORNTON/HART.. 08/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41788993 41859141 41379201 40489155 40219102 39588904
38778560 38678459 39108416 39748424 40288456 41248686
41638908 41788993
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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