525
FNUS21 KWNS 141647
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
A SMALL CONTRACTION OF THE EXISTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS WAS MADE ACROSS THE CASCADES AS LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST INTO CENTRAL OR. A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS MADE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN RECENT
FIRE ACTIVITY AND LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDS. CONTINUED BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WITHIN AN
ANOMALOUSLY DRY FUELSCAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX, WESTERN
OK AND FAR SOUTHERN KS. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0151 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL
US TODAY. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS TROUGHING, ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE, SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE BENEATH THE RIDGE, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL FOSTER ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..WESTERN WA/OR INTO NORTHERN CA
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
CA AND INTO WESTERN OR AND SOUTHERN WA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL OVERSPREAD
A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM NORTHWESTERN CA TO THE OR CASCADES
AND CENTRAL OR. PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.90" AND FASTER NORTHEASTWARD
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE LIMITED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. ERC VALUES IN THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE AND
SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR IGNITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER OR WHERE
FASTER STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 F ARE LIKELY FROM THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. WITH THIS
HEAT, AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW 20%.
BOLSTERED BY THE STRONG HEATING AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE SOUTHWESTERLY 15-20 MPH SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS, ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES NEAR A STALLED FRONT. WHILE LIKELY HIGHER
BASED, WEAKENING UPPER FLOW FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT
STORM MOTIONS AND DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STILL, LIGHTNING
INTERACTING WITH DRIER FUELS COULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IGNITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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