668
ACUS11 KWNS 142202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142202
VAZ000-NCZ000-150000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142202Z - 150000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...MIXED MODE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER
IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S, WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH COLD POOL ORGANIZATION, THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS THIS LINE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WITHIN THE MORE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A SUPERCELL IS MOVING SOUTH EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT, LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FAIRLY WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MAIN THREATS TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED SOON.
..THORNTON/GLEASON.. 08/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 37277960 37777917 38097884 38217845 38167791 37907735
37517707 37047713 36617739 36287838 36327889 36657958
37277960
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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