012
ACUS01 KWNS 150101
SWODY1
SPC AC 150059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
..MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS. AN
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI ARE IN THE UPPER 70S F. THE RAP CURRENTLY HAS AN
EAST-TO-WEST CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI, WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
RANGE. ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS EVENING HAVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 25 TO
30 KNOT RANGE WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS. AN
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IF ANY OF THE
CELLS CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..MID-ATLANTIC
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE THE RAP
HAS MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER
EASTERN VIRGINIA. NEAR THIS CONVECTION, THE WSR-88D VWP AT WAKEFIELD
HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WHICH COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR
THE FRONT ARE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F, AND THE RAP HAS MLCAPE
IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS
NEAR THE COLORADO-KANSAS STATE LINE THIS EVENING HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHEAST NEVADA, ALONG WHICH THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE INSTABILITY
AXIS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS
ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES.. 08/15/2026
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