171
ACUS03 KWNS 150632
SWODY3
SPC AC 150631
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
ON MONDAY, WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING.
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (50S TO LOW 60S F) IS FORECAST AHEAD
OF A SOUTHWESTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES,
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND AROUND 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUGGEST ORGANIZED
ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, IN ADDITIONAL TO
SPORADIC STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. AREAS OF
STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST, BUT STRONG INSTABILITY
AMID STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURST WINDS AND CONVECTION
SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 08/15/2026
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