144
ACUS11 KWNS 151725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151725
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-152000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING
THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151725Z - 152000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE BLUE RIDGE, INCLUDING THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS. IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, IT
APPEARS DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG - PER LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. REGIONAL VWPS
INDICATE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE
OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH PULSE-TYPE STORM MODES EXPECTED.
NONETHELESS, ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFECTIVE WATER LOADING OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 08/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
LAT...LON 35628489 36668420 37718390 38148331 37088146 36838099
36298083 35358187 34588318 34278430 34808474 35628489
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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