705
ACUS03 KWNS 160719
SWODY3
SPC AC 160719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID-MS VALLEY VICINITY
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, WITH
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE GUSTS. WITH TIME, SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING, AND MCS
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR.
..LEITMAN.. 08/16/2026
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