477
ACUS11 KWNS 161713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161712
ILZ000-MOZ000-161845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161712Z - 161845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER PIKE
COUNTY, IL, ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG) HAS DEVELOPED
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, EARLIER STORMS IN THE ST.
LOUIS VICINITY HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIR MASS
FROM EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL, WHICH MAY LIMIT A
LONGER-DURATION SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
STORM. AS SUCH, A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, KLSX
DOES SHOW SOME BASE VELOCITY ENHANCEMENT, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 08/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40189126 40639118 40578986 40228891 39658895 39408948
39359014 39759136 40189126
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page