250
ACUS03 KWNS 161936
SWODY3
SPC AC 161936
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..NE/IA/KS/MO
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
SOME COOLING ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NE AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS I-80 IN NE/IA. THE PRESENCE OF MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FURTHER AUGMENT THE BOUNDARY, AND LENDS
UNCERTAINTY TO POSITIONING. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF STRONG HEATING WILL
EXIST AS SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY NEAR AN
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR.
THE AREA OVER NE APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SOME
MODEL PROGS, WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO 50 KT, AND INCREASED SRH NEAR
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHEASTWARD STORM MOTIONS,
SUPERCELLS COULD REMAIN ON ANY SUCH BOUNDARY, WITH ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CELLS BEFORE LIKELY MERGERS INTO AN MCS,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST KS AND
NORTHERN MO.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES, WILL MAINTAIN 15% COVERAGE, BUT WITH
CONDITIONAL CIG1 AREA.
..JEWELL.. 08/16/2026
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