870
ACUS11 KWNS 162012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162011
ILZ000-MOZ000-162215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162011Z - 162215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES REMNANT FROM EARLIER STORMS LOCATED OVER THE
REGION AS OF 20Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
CONFIRMS RESIDUAL CAPPING OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
ADJACENT WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IL. TO THE SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 100
F WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT,
COINCIDENT WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG. THAT AREA RESIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED, STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW RELATED TO AN MCV
MOVING ALONG THE IA-MO BORDER.
VARIABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE AND TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLES IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE PREFERRED LOCATION(S)
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL, THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF INITIAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS
INTO AN MCS, WHICH TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A HOT, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO, THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE THIS
EVENING SHOULD STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS ALONG A COALESCING COLD
POOL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 08/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37769388 38189411 38729359 39219213 39219124 39339005
39088955 38198923 37698931 37078993 37019147 37179255
37429339 37769388
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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