656
ACUS11 KWNS 170714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170713
KYZ000-INZ000-170915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170713Z - 170915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST KY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY WEAK, RICH MOISTURE (WITH
PW NEAR/ABOVE 2 INCHES) IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE BUOYANCY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE (WITH SOME INCREASE IN 1-3 KM AGL FLOW NOTED IN
REGIONAL VWPS) WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AN EASTWARD-MOVING
MCS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTINUE TO MITIGATE THE
SEVERE-WIND THREAT TO SOME EXTENT, THOUGH A SEVERE GUST WAS RECENTLY
OBSERVED WITHIN A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IN. AT
LEAST ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE IN/KY BORDER, WHERE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN PLACE. EVENTUALLY, DECREASING BUOYANCY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
WEAKENING TREND
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 08/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...
LAT...LON 38448728 38468605 38458525 38078512 37788523 37588542
37428559 37408606 37518698 37648770 37888750 38028733
38448728
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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