049
ACUS11 KWNS 172101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172100
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-172230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172100Z - 172230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE IN WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S F)
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST BUOYANCY OF
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE, WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
(30-35 KTS SAMPLED AT 2-4 KM AGL BY THE MVX VWP) AND STRENGTHENING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE INITIALLY. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST
(AROUND 6 K/KM), AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST GIVEN ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS AND APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY RAPID UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR/BOWING CLUSTER WILL THEN
OCCUR, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS RISK.
..CHALMERS/GUYER.. 08/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46429672 46859671 47129661 47459604 47579506 47499410
47249346 46859314 46539303 45899301 45469314 45179358
45109454 45119532 45259598 45899658 46429672
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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