394
ACUS11 KWNS 172305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172304
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-180100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172304Z - 180100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING. THE SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED
FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVER 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE (PER
RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS). ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A
THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS. AS THESE STORMS PULSE UP AND
SUBSEQUENTLY COLLAPSE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COLD-POOL CLUSTERING, AS STORMS PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST, MAY ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN THE ISOLATED
SPATIOTEMPORAL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT (ENDING SHORTLY AFTER DARK), A
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
..JIRAK/GLEASON.. 08/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 34718928 34878887 34788801 34808752 35048698 35208640
35128611 34868574 34658558 34378562 34088589 34038630
33978743 33998815 34298893 34408926 34718928
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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