579
ACUS03 KWNS 180728
SWODY3
SPC AC 180727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY FROM
MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS, PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE GUSTS FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINAS.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH TIGHTENING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH OVER 40 KT AT 500 MB.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM MN INTO NE, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING. STORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
CELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SOME PREDICTABILITY ISSUES EXIST AMONGST
MODELS, AND THEREFORE WILL DEFER A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO LATER
UPDATES. THE COMBINATION OF 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND 60S F DEWPOINTS MAY SUPPORT HAIL AT OR ABOVE 2.00"
DIAMETER.
..EASTERN VA AND NC
A MID/UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MIDLEVEL WINDS OF
30-40 KT ACROSS MD/VA AND INTO NORTHERN NC, AIDING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AS WELL AS OVERALL MEAN WIND SPEEDS. AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN VA INTO NC WHERE 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH FAVORABLE AFTERNOON TIMING
SUPPORTING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
..JEWELL.. 08/18/2026
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