932
ACUS48 KWNS 180826
SWOD48
SPC AC 180824
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION
FOR THE FRI/D4 TO TUE/D8 PERIOD, AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
ON FRI/D4, SCATTERED STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
CORNBELT, WITH AREAS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BENEATH THE 30-40
KT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FAVOR SCATTERED HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING STORMS OR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS EARLY IN THE DAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT AIR MASS
QUALITY AND EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY POSITIONING. HOWEVER, THE NE/KS/IA/MO
REGION APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN EVENTUAL RISK AREA.
ALSO ON FRI/D4, STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC TO CAROLINAS, WHERE 25 KT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS
AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. AREAS OF ONGOING STORMS OR OUTFLOWS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTION MAY HAVE AN IMPACT HERE AS WELL AS FAR AS
THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONES FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL ON SAT/D5 TO SUN/D6 OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AS COOLING ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE CRITICAL, AS WILL THE
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
..JEWELL.. 08/18/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page